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Projecting the 2015-16 English Premier League

Following on from my most recent post, I present league projections for the 2015-16 English Premier League.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order.  These league projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical output in previous seasons and […]

Assessing the Projections: 2014 Major League Soccer regular season

The 2014 Major League Soccer regular season concluded a week and a half ago.  It’s time to look back at the projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what we projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final league table finished like this […]

A statistical summary of 2013-14 league projections

To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the […]

Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013-14 leagues (Part 3)

This is the third and final part of our exercise in humility — evaluating and assessing our league projections from the 2013-14 European season.  At some point in the future I’ll post the projected league tables, but I wanted to write my assessments and besides the 2014-15 season has just started. (more…)