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# A Pythagorean view of the English Premier League with a month to go

After a month or three of collecting obscure data, rewriting database code, and making friends (heh), I’ve emerged to write some analytical content.  I haven’t come across in-match data from this season (yet), but I decided to start thinking about the Premier League season using one of my favorite high-level tools — the soccer Pythagorean.If you’re […]

# Assessing the Projections: 2015 Major League Soccer regular season

The 2015 Major League Soccer regular season concluded last Sunday.  It’s time to engage in that exercise in humility in which I look back at projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what was projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final […]

# Projecting the 2015-16 English Premier League

Following on from my most recent post, I present league projections for the 2015-16 English Premier League.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order.  These league projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical output in previous seasons and […]

# Projecting the 2015-16 Dutch Eredivisie

The 2015-16 European season is here, and it’s time to repeat a feature of the site: preseason league projection tables.  This post will feature projections for the Dutch Eredivisie which starts this weekend.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order.  These league […]

# Projecting the 2015 Major League Soccer season

Major League Soccer’s 20th season kicks off later tonight, so in advance of the new season I present projections for all twenty teams in the regular season.I thank Aaron Nielsen for his work in creating expected goal statistics for all of the MLS sides and for his permission in allowing me to use these figures […]

# Assessing the Projections: 2014 Major League Soccer regular season

The 2014 Major League Soccer regular season concluded a week and a half ago.  It’s time to look back at the projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what we projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final league table finished like this […]

# Projections for 2014-15 Eredivisie (End of Summer transfer window)

The summer transfer window is now closed, so it’s a good time to update the projections for this season’s Eredivisie. (more…)

# Projections for 2014-15 English Premier League (End of Summer transfers)

The summer transfer window is now closed, so it’s a good time to update the projections for this season’s Premier League. (more…)

# A statistical summary of 2013-14 league projections

To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the […]

# Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013-14 leagues (Part 3)

This is the third and final part of our exercise in humility — evaluating and assessing our league projections from the 2013-14 European season.  At some point in the future I’ll post the projected league tables, but I wanted to write my assessments and besides the 2014-15 season has just started. (more…)