To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the country, the domestic competitions are all in the top-flight.

Believe it or not, this was the first time that I’ve put together a league table expectation in a systematic way, and I thank Aaron Nielsen for access to his extensive player statistical database.  It was an interesting experiment to understand the value of forecasts based on squad-level estimates, and the effectiveness and limitations of deterministic forecasts in future league competitions.  I believe that squad forecasts are the way to go, but there’s a limit to what you can observe with statistical data, and of course there exists good old uncertainty.  Hope you found this public examination useful.