The English Premier League Pythagorean with two rounds to go
Categories: Soccer Pythagorean: Tables
Manchester City retook the Premier League lead with their 1-0 win over Manchester United tonight. But how are they doing in the league Pythagorean with two matches left?
I recompiled the Pythagorean for results including tonight’s match. The standard league Pythagorean exponent is 1.70. At the previous table on 25 March, City were at a +2 Pythagorean residual and United at +8. Now, the Arsenal-City match occurred in the interim, and I don’t know how the Pythagorean table looked after that weekend. But it appears that the recent reversal is less a City surge and more a reversion to the mean by United. City have played well enough to be just in front over the majority of the season, and the actual league table reflects that observation once again.
Newcastle have been the biggest overachievers this season and could overhaul Spurs and maybe Arsenal by the final round. At the other end Wigan and QPR have surged ahead of Blackburn and Bolton (who should be all but condemned by now), but the relegation fight isn’t over yet.
It’s almost certain that the league title, European places, and relegation fates won’t be decided until the final round in two weeks’ time. What an exciting climax to the season.
| League Table | Pythagorean | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | W | D | L | Pts | Δ |
| Manchester City | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 27 | +61 | 83 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 81 | +2 |
| Manchester United | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 86 | 33 | +53 | 83 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 79 | +4 |
| Arsenal | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 68 | 44 | +24 | 66 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 65 | +1 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 62 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 60 | +2 |
| Newcastle United | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 62 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 54 | +8 |
| Chelsea | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 39 | +23 | 61 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 62 | -1 |
| Everton | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 51 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 52 | -1 |
| Liverpool | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 49 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 52 | -3 |
| Fulham | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 46 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 45 | +1 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 46 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 46 | +0 |
| Sunderland | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 45 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 49 | -4 |
| Swansea City | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 44 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 46 | -2 |
| Norwich City | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 63 | -16 | 43 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 41 | +2 |
| Stoke City | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 43 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 37 | +6 |
| Aston Villa | 36 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 37 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 40 | -3 |
| Wigan Athletic | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 37 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 36 | +1 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 36 | 9 | 7 | 20 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -2 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 35 | 10 | 4 | 21 | 41 | 69 | -28 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 32 | +2 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 36 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 75 | -28 | 31 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 35 | -4 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 36 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -4 |
