Happy New Year to all of our readers! I hope all of you have a healthy and productive 2015.
Let’s ease into the year with some analysis of effective match time in the 2014 J-League Division One competition. It’s similar to what I’ve done in previous analyses of the Premier League and J-League competitions, and you can find background material here, here, and here. The objective is this: determine the impact of clubs on effective playing time relative to the average match.
First, some summary data on effective playing time in J1:
- The mean effective playing time in J1 matches was 3379 seconds, or 56 minutes 19 seconds. This represents a 36 second increase over the mean playing time in last season’s competition.
- Standard deviation in J1 is 280.3 seconds, or 4 minutes 40 seconds — A nine second widening over 2013 J1.
- Match with most effective match time: Vegalta Sendai vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (70 minutes 5 seconds, matchday 14)
- Match with least effective match time: Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai (43 minutes 24 seconds, matchday 24)
Below is a table of the team impacts on playing time relative to an average match:
|EPT Impact (secs)||Std Error (secs)|
As I’ve said in previous posts, just knowing which teams are involved in a J-League match will explain between 30-40% of the variation in effective match time. The bias term is effectively zero (8.0 ± 12.7 sec), which indicates that mean centering has the desired effect on the regression. Once again Sanfrecce Hiroshima has a larger impact on playing time than their rivals — close to five and a half minutes (331.6 seconds). Urawa Reds also exhibited a consistently high effect on playing time (155.5 seconds). To a lesser extent, Ventforet Kofu has a positive impact on playing time. More of the same teams that had negative impacts on playing time in 2013 had similar impacts in 2014 — Albirex Niigata, Nagoya Grampus, Shimizu S-Pulse, and Sagan Tosu. Sagan Tosu’s presence in league matches was associated with a 2 minute 15 second drop in playing time relative to the league average, more than any other J1 side. The impact of the rest of the league on playing time was minimal.
Similar analyses of J2 and J3 will come shortly.