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How do we create models to predict or explain?

Shmueli, G., “To Explain or To Predict?”, Statistical Science, 25(3): 289-310, 2010. [PDF][Research Page]Summary: This publication examines the fundamental and practical differences between the use of statistical and other empirical methods for prediction and causal explanation.  The article’s thesis is that statistical modeling, from the early stages of study design and data collection, to choice of model […]

Looking back on five years in soccer analytics: Part two

[This is the second part of my perspectives on Soccermetrics on its 5th anniversary.]While I was expanding from writing about other people’s research in soccer analytics to conducting my own, events were occurring on a backdrop of a Soccermetrics’ transition from a blog to something more formal.  I attended the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference […]

Goal-line technology comes to soccer – what’s next?

The approval of the use of goal-line technology by FIFA’s International Football Association Board is a historic event in the evolution of the sport whose consequences may not be apparent over the near- or medium-term.First, the facts of the matter: the IFAB, which approves all changes to the Laws of the Game, unanimously approved the […]

Capturing context and space in football match analysis

Football is traditionally a sport of few statistics, and the bulk of the statistics that have been available, such as shots, fouls, and corner kicks, were neutral and summarizing in nature.  (Aside from the obvious positive statistic of goals, of course.) Thanks to companies such as Opta, Prozone, and Match Analysis, football clubs, football leagues, […]