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What I’m up to this week

This is a busy week for everyone doing analytics work.  People are rushing to complete their final analyses of the 32 finalists, make tournament predictions, and whatever software tools they need to carry out their tasks.  Here is what I'm working on this week: Debugging the data entry forms that implement the Football Match Result […]

Are there common features of teams with large Pythagorean variances?

My last post has sparked a question in my soccermetric mind: Are there common features in the offensive and defensive goal distributions for teams with large Pythagorean variances?  The Soccer Pythagorean works well at assessing the level of team performance relative to expectations from their goal statistics.  It can even predict point totals within a […]

A closer look at Ajax’s goal performance

I am so fascinated by Ajax's performance in the league this season, and I'm intrigued that there was such a large gap between the Pythagorean estimate and the actual point total.  To be sure, FC Twente's performance also greatly outperformed their Pythagorean estimate.  But Ajax's record deserves closer scrutiny because their goalscoring record was so […]

Soccer Pythagorean 2.0 paper released

I completed my write-up of my revised derivations of the soccer Pythagorean formula.  It fixes the problems that I had with overpredicting points and calculating win and draw probabilities that exceeded unity.  Maybe I should come up with a better name, because it no longer looks like the Pythagorean equation.Here's the document link:PythagDerivationVersion2p0.pdf [240kb]I hope […]

There is no such thing as a simple Soccer Pythagorean

For the last few months I've been working on a soccer version of the Pythagorean formula.  It's taken me into some interesting directions, and I've learned a lot about probability theory and reacquainted myself with the Weibull continuous distribution, which I haven't seen since an interesting summer internship in Florida almost 20 years ago. I […]

Some modifications to the Soccer Pythagorean formula

Two weeks ago I said that I would post the document containing the derivation of the Soccer Pythagorean formula, but I was trying to complete a modification before uploading the paper on the site.  It had to do with the fact that the predicted percentages of wins and draws exceeded 1 in some cases, which […]