Self-affirmation and goalscoring models

Bittner E., Nussbaumer A., Janke W. and Weigel M., "Self-affirmation model for football goal distributions", Europhysics Letters, 78 (2007), 58002. [PDF]Does scoring a goal in a football match improve the probability of scoring another one?  In this paper the authors augment a statistical model with a feedback term called "self-affirmation" that reflects the (de)motivation of […]

National team rankings using paired comparison models

S. E. Hallinan, "Paired comparison models for ranking national soccer teams", M.S. Thesis, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, 2005. [PDF]This thesis extends a Bradley-Terry statistical model to accommodate for drawn results, home advantage, and neutral site matches and applies it to international results over the last ten years in order to develop an […]

Quantifying strategy effectiveness in football

L. Szczepanski, "Measuring the effectiveness of strategies and quantifying players' performance in football", International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 8(2): 55-66, 2008. [Link]This paper describes a procedure that estimates the probability of scoring and conceding goals in a match from open or set play in a given sector of the field, by a player […]

New and improved blogrolls

I revamped the blogroll and broke them out into separate subjects.  I now have links under professional organizations, people (research or practitioners), publications (from scholarly journals to books), research groups, and software.  Now that I think of it, I should have another category for databases that will keep soccermetricians from having to reinvent the wheel.So […]

Participating and serving in MATHCOUNTS

This isn't soccer-related, or soccermetrics-related, but it is math-related.  I participated as a volunteer for the Arizona MATHCOUNTS competition this weekend.  I've gone full-circle, because I competed in one of the regional competitions in Florida when I was a junior high school student in the late 80s.  For those who don't know what it is, […]