Pythagorean Projections: 2009-2010 Turkish Super League

Yesterday, I published a table of team performance relative to statistical expectations in the English Premier League using my Soccer Pythagorean formula.  Today I present a similar table for this season's Turkish Super League.  The results are based on mid-season form and displayed in the same manner as before — goals scored and goals allowed, league points, predicted points, and difference in table placing. I'm using a league Pythagorean exponent of 1.70, assuming that the goal distribution in the Turkish league isn't all that different from other European leagues (or world leagues for that matter).

Club
GP   GF
 GA
Actual Pts
Predicted Pts
+/- League Standing
Fenerbahce 17 31 17 37 39 +3
Galatasaray 17 36 21 36 38 +3
Bursaspor 17 34 17 35 40 -1
Kayserispor 17 28 13 34 41 -3
Besiktas 17 20 10 32 40 -2
Trabzonspor 17 30 21 27 35 0
Genclerbirligi 17 23 17 26 35 0
Istanbul BB 17 21 25 26 27 +6
Eskisehirspor 17 21 16 25 35 -1
Antalyaspor 17 24 21 24 32 -1
Gaziantepspor 17 22 20 24 32 -1
Kasimpasa 17 26 28 20 28 -1
Manisaspor 17 16 19 18 28 0
Diyarbakirspor 17 17 25 18 24 +2
Ankaragucu 17 22 25 17 28 -3
Sivasspor 17 21 29 17 24 -1
Denizlispor 17 11 28 7 17 0
Ankaraspor 17 0 51 0 3 0

What jumps out at me here is the overperformance of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray relative to their expectations.  At the midpoint of the season, other teams, such as Kayserispor and Besiktas, have amassed better defensive records but have not performed as their goal differentials might indicate.  Overall, most clubs' goal-scoring performances are in line with their actual league standing, with the exception of Istanbul BB (40% of their goals allowed were in two matches).  Ankaraspor was predicted to score 3 points by my formula, which is annoying because they were forced to forfeit all league matches by the TFF.  It's another indication that the Pythagorean formula needs some improvement.

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