Yesterday, I published a table of team performance relative to statistical expectations in the English Premier League using my Soccer Pythagorean formula. Today I present a similar table for this season's Turkish Super League. The results are based on mid-season form and displayed in the same manner as before — goals scored and goals allowed, league points, predicted points, and difference in table placing. I'm using a league Pythagorean exponent of 1.70, assuming that the goal distribution in the Turkish league isn't all that different from other European leagues (or world leagues for that matter).
||+/- League Standing
What jumps out at me here is the overperformance of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray relative to their expectations. At the midpoint of the season, other teams, such as Kayserispor and Besiktas, have amassed better defensive records but have not performed as their goal differentials might indicate. Overall, most clubs' goal-scoring performances are in line with their actual league standing, with the exception of Istanbul BB (40% of their goals allowed were in two matches). Ankaraspor was predicted to score 3 points by my formula, which is annoying because they were forced to forfeit all league matches by the TFF. It's another indication that the Pythagorean formula needs some improvement.