Pythagorean Projections: 2009-2010 French Ligue 1

Following up on my previous posts on Pythagoreans for the English and Turkish leagues, after the jump is a similar table for this season's Ligue 1 in France. 

Club
GP   GF
 GA
Actual Pts
Predicted Pts
+/- League Standing
Bordeaux 19 32 12 43 48 0
Marseille 18 30 20 32 38 +2
Lille 19 37 19 34 44 -1
Lyon 19 31 26 30 36 +4
Montpellier 19 26 21 33 35 +6
Rennes 19 24 19 29 38 0
Auxerre 19 19 15 32 38 0
Valenciennes 19 30 26 28 36 +1
PSG 19 31 18 29 42 -6
Lorient 19 29 22 29 38 -5
Monaco 19 20 22 27 31 +1
Nancy 19 26 29 26 31 +1
Lens 19 19 24 26 30 +1
Toulouse 19 19 17 25 36 -4
Sochaux 17 17 21 25 27 0
Nice 19 20 32 22 25 +1
Saint-Etienne 19 11 26 16 22 +1
Le Mans 19 17 28 16 25 -2
Boulougne 18 15 35 13 18 0
Grenoble 19 10 33 7 16 0

According to the formula, Lyon and Montpellier have overperformed relative to their statistical expectations, while Toulouse, PSG, and Lorient have underperformed significantly.  The rest of the teams have performed pretty much in line with what would be expected from their goalscoring statistics (Marseille and Le Mans being slightly better and worse, respectively).

I'm thinking that goal distribution might be another useful tool in determining whether the overperformance or underperformance is real or merely a statistical artifact.  To that end, I'm very interested in the paper presentation by the Iowa State professor next month.

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