Final rotation practices at the 2012 Olympic Men’s Football Competition

We start our statistical retrospective of the 2012 Olympic football competition with a look at the rotation practices of the 16 finalists.  This is in the same vein as similar analyses for the Africa Cup of Nations and the European Championships and includes the squad rotations through the end of the knockout stage (“medal round” as the Americans call it).

For those who didn’t follow the original post, the Olympics are different from other international football competitions in that the squads are limited to 18 players.  There’s also a consolation match, which the European Championships don’t have (unique among international football competitions).

The first part of the analysis tabulates the number of players rotated through a team’s starting lineup relative to the previous match.  The second part records the change in the number of players who made a match appearance relative to the previous match, so not just starters but substitutes as well.

Below is the table of results from part 1 of the analysis.  Olympic teams that advanced to the knockout stage are in red.


# Changes in Starters from Last Match


Country GM 2 GM 3 QF SF Bronze Gold # Rotations Actives
Japan 1 5 6 0 0
12 17
Brazil 1 5 3 1
0 10 16
Korea Republic 0 1 2 4 3
10 16
Honduras 3 2 3


8 16
Senegal 2 2 3


7 16
Great Britain 3 3 0


6 15
Switzerland 2 2 4 15
Spain 2 3 5 14
Mexico 0 2 1 0
1 4 14
Uruguay 1 3 4 14
Egypt 1 2 0


3 14
Gabon 1 2 3 14
Morocco 1 2 3 13
United Arab Emirates 0 2 2 13
Belarus 1 0 1 12
New Zealand 0 0 0 11
© 2012 Soccermetrics Research

Japan and Brazil rotated a high number of players through the starting lineup during the group stage and rotated almost as many during the knockout rounds, but check out the change in strategy from South Korea.  They made a few changes for their quarterfinal match against Great Britain and a lot more for the semifinal against Brazil.  Normally third-place matches don’t matter to either club in an international competition, but the Olympics are different, at least to the Koreans.  Mexico, Great Britain, and Egypt kept what was essentially the first XI for their knockout round games, and Mexico might have made just one rotation among starting players had Dos Santos not pulled his hamstring.

The second part of the analysis examines squad rotations among players who made a match appearance, and the chart below presents those results.  Again, Olympic teams which went through to the medal round are in red.


# Changes in Lineup from Last Match


Country GM 2 GM 3 QF SF Bronze Gold # Rotations Actives
Korea Republic 0 1 2 3 3
9 18
Brazil 1 3 1 2
1 8 18
United Arab Emirates 2 4 6 18
Japan 1 3 3 1 1
9 17
Senegal 2 3 2


7 17
Honduras 3 1 2


6 17
Great Britain 2 3 1


6 17
New Zealand 3 2 5 17
Switzerland 2 3 5 17
Mexico 1 2 1 1
3 8 16
Spain 2 3 5 16
Uruguay 2 2 4 16
Egypt 0 2 1


3 16
Morocco 1 2 3 16
Gabon 2 1 3 15
Belarus 0 3 3 15
© 2012 Soccermetrics Research

Brazil and — surprisingly — South Korea were the two quarterfinalists who used their entire squad of players, whether as starters or substitutes.  The silver medalists had a deep squad that could take up starting positions without losing team quality; the Koreans also had talent but their manager appeared to rely on a core of starters in the group matches and deploy his substitutes and reserves in the later round.  Most of the other finalists used 17 of their 18 players, except for Egypt and gold medalists Mexico.  It seemed that Luís Tena settled on a best Mexican XI and deviated slightly from it unless he had to.  Judging from results, the squad repaid him handsomely for his faith in their talent.

Share

Tags: ,