Projecting the European leagues in 2013-14 (Part 2)

We continue our projections of selected European leagues in 2013-14 with eight more competitions in France, Germany, Greece, Poland, and Russia.  In Part I of this series, we explain how we developed these projections.

Here we go —

France (Ligue 1): Most observers expect PSG and Monaco to be the top two teams in Ligue 1 given their summer buys.  We expect the same thing, with PSG ending up champions by two to seven points.  The final Champions League place could be a toss-up between Marseille and Lyon, but Lille could compete for the spot as well.  At the bottom, Ajaccio, Valenciennes, and Nantes are likely to drop down to Ligue 2, but we think seven teams could find themselves drawn in the relegation scrap.

France (Ligue 2): We expect Lens to be promoted to Ligue 1 as champions, with Dijon to join them in the top flight.  Angers, Nancy and Le Havre to contend for the final promotion place.  At the bottom, we predict CA Bastia, Stade Laval, and Cretell to be relegated to Championnat National.

Germany (1.Bundesliga): Bayern Munich may not be as dominant as they were in 2012-13, but we still expect them to repeat as Bundesliga champions from Borussia Dortmund.  At the bottom we expect Eintracht Braunschweig and Augsburg to go down directly and Mainz to face the playoff against the third-placed 2.Bundesliga team.

Germany (2.Bundesliga): We project that Kaiserslautern will be promoted to the top flight directly after falling short in the playoff last year.  Düsseldorf will make a quick return to the Bundesliga, and Arminia Bielefeld will go through the playoff against Mainz.  At the bottom, we expect Sandhausen and Ingolstadt  to drop down to the 3.Liga and either Energie Cottbus, Paderborn, or FSV Frankfurt to face the playoff against the 3rd placed team in 3.Liga.

Germany (3.Liga): Heidenheim and Preussen Münster to be promoted to the 2.Bundesliga, and we see it as a toss-up which team will become champions.  Red Bull Leipzig could contend for direct promotion but right now we see them in the promotion playoff.

Greece: This is the equivalent of calling a Congressional seat with less than 1% of the vote counted. Olympiakos will win Superleague Greece without any doubt.  The league expanded from 16 to 18 teams this season and it’s not clear if the relegation procedures stay the same.  We expect OFI, Panthrakikos, and Ergotelis to occupy the bottom three.

Poland: This is the equivalent of a Congressional seat this is too close to call.  We expect a two-way fight between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa, and our Pythagorean projections have the league coming down to goal difference and even goals scored.  There’s also a tie at the bottom between Podbeskidzie and Cracovia Krakow, but the bottom two are relegated in this case.

Russia: The Russian Premier League kicked off last month, but we’re using the squad lists from the start of the season.  We project CSKA Moscow to win the league for the second year in a row with a close challenge from Zenit St Petersburg.  Volga Nizhny Novgorod and Tom Tomsk will go down to the FNL, and Krylia Sovetov and Amkar Perm will face the promotion/relegation playoff against the 3rd and 4th place FNL teams.

Part 3 tomorrow…