Pythagorean 2.0 Projections: 2010 MLS Regular Season (2010-08-22)

Just about all of the teams in Major League Soccer have 10-12 matches remaining, so it is a good place to look at how the teams' performances compare to their statistical expectations.  I published similar tables on the 6th of June and the 1st of May

Same thing as before — league Pythagorean exponent of 1.70, and separate conference tables.  I could have published a unitary table, which would have made sense with the balanced table, but I decided to leave it this way.  If you look at the current table and compare it to the tables from May and June, you'll see that the Red Bulls have cooled off a bit but are still overperforming.  Columbus seem to have hit their stride in May and consistently overperformed since then.  What is interesting about MLS is that you don't find teams that significantly over- or under-perform relative to their statistical expectations.  New York was performing at +6 in the last Pythagorean table, and Chivas USA at -5 in the current one, but the variations stay within that six-point band.  Perhaps this is an artifact of the parity in the league that the front office places a high priority on.

Eastern Conference:

Team GP GF GA Pts Pythag +/-
Columbus Crew 21 31 20 40 36 +4
New York Red Bulls 21 25 23 34 30 +4
Toronto FC 20 22 25 26 25 +1
Chicago Fire 18 26 26 24 25 -1
Kansas City Wizards 20 19 23 23 24 -1
New England Revolution 20 20 33 21 19 +2
Philadelphia Union 20 23 36 17 20 -3
D.C. United 21 15 35 15 15 0

Western Conference:

Team GP GF GA Pts Pythag +/-
Los Angeles Galaxy 21 32 14 43 41 +2
Real Salt Lake 21 36 16 39 42 -3
FC Dallas 20 28 17 36 35 +1
San Jose Earthquakes 19 22 20 29 27 +2
Seattle Sounders FC 21 23 25 29 27 +2
Colorado Rapids 20 22 21 28 28 0
Houston Dynamo 21 27 33 23 25 -2
Chivas USA 20 22 26 19 24 -5
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