Now that the 2010-11 La Liga season is over, it's time to post the final weighted goalscorers list. This is the original version of the metric without any consideration of marginal utility, just the number of goals and the ranking of the opponent at the start of the matchday. I used the weighting function defined in my original post on the metric, which you can find here. I considered goals scored from a penalty kick but not own-goals.
The top 20 players in the weighted goalscorers list are shown below:
|Cristiano Ronaldo||Real Madrid||40||23.214|
|Karim Benzema||Real Madrid||15||6.694|
As was the case last time, Ronaldo and Messi end up at the top of the list, far above the other goalscorers. Even if you discounted the large number of penalties that Ronaldo takes, I would still expect him to head the list. (That would be something worth testing in the future.) The rest of the list shows some interesting results. The scorers in places 3-6 have almost the same number of goals, but David Villa's metric appears to show an ability to score against teams in the upper regions of the league table. I am surprised to see Roberto Soldado ranked so low for a player of his goalscoring record, while Manu's rank deserves further scrutiny.
I ran this metric as a proof-of-concept. It appears to have some promise in estimating the value of a player's goals, but I need to take some time to think about what the numbers really mean. I would have liked to develop a final rank that takes marginal goalscoring utility into account, but such a task would have required me to look at all 1000+ goals (not counting own-goals) and determine the goal differential at the time of every goal. I'd be willing to undertake such a task at the beginning of the season when one is looking at 15-30 goals in a matchday, but not at the end.