Final weighted goalscorers list: 2010-11 Spanish La Liga

Now that the 2010-11 La Liga season is over, it's time to post the final weighted goalscorers list.  This is the original version of the metric without any consideration of marginal utility, just the number of goals and the ranking of the opponent at the start of the matchday. I used the weighting function defined in my original post on the metric, which you can find here. I considered goals scored from a penalty kick but not own-goals.

The top 20 players in the weighted goalscorers list are shown below:

Player Team Goals Total
Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid 40 23.214
Lionel Messi Barcelona 31 17.821
David Villa Barcelona 18 11.652
Álvaro Negredo Sevilla 19 11.341
Giuseppe Rossi Villarreal 18 10.864
Sergio Agüero Atlético 20 10.843
Fernando Llorente Athletic 18 10.821
Pablo Osvaldo Espanyol 14 9.035
Salomon Rondón Málaga 13 8.730
Roberto Soldado Valencia 17 8.629
David Trézéguet Hércules 12 8.487
Felipe Caicedo Levante 13 7.557
Pedro Barcelona 13 7.148
Aritz Aduriz Valencia 11 7.026
Manu Getafe 9 6.778
Karim Benzema Real Madrid 15 6.694
Gabi Zaragoza 10 6.424
Fréderic Kanouté Sevilla 12 6.310
Diego Castro Sporting 10 5.800
Nilmar Villarreal 11 5.767

As was the case last time, Ronaldo and Messi end up at the top of the list, far above the other goalscorers.  Even if you discounted the large number of penalties that Ronaldo takes, I would still expect him to head the list.  (That would be something worth testing in the future.)  The rest of the list shows some interesting results.  The scorers in places 3-6 have almost the same number of goals, but David Villa's metric appears to show an ability to score against teams in the upper regions of the league table.  I am surprised to see Roberto Soldado ranked so low for a player of his goalscoring record, while Manu's rank deserves further scrutiny.

I ran this metric as a proof-of-concept.  It appears to have some promise in estimating the value of a player's goals, but I need to take some time to think about what the numbers really mean.  I would have liked to develop a final rank that takes marginal goalscoring utility into account, but such a task would have required me to look at all 1000+ goals (not counting own-goals) and determine the goal differential at the time of every goal.  I'd be willing to undertake such a task at the beginning of the season when one is looking at 15-30 goals in a matchday, but not at the end.