A look at intra-match result probabilities

Dave Clark at Sounder at Heart has written a post that takes the Win Expectancy charts from Graham MacAree's We Ain't Got no History site and applies them to last night's Colorado-Real Salt Lake match last night.  (For those of you who don't follow MLS, Colorado had a 2-0 lead late in the match, then RSL scored right at the beginning of stoppage time, won a penalty two minutes later, and converted it successfully for the 2-2 final score.)

The chart does a good job for conveying how the result pendulum behaved over the entire match, and shifted during two stoppage-time minutes.  The win probability concept is worth digging into at some point…later!