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Goal distributions in the 2008-09 English Premier League

I'm using the 2008-09 English Premier League as a test case of the three-parameter Weibull distribution that is the basis of the Pythagorean formula.  Below I present the exponent values that I obtained from the least-squares estimation, as well as a few plots that show how the resulting Weibull distribution fit to the score data. […]

Self-affirmation and goalscoring models

Bittner E., Nussbaumer A., Janke W. and Weigel M., "Self-affirmation model for football goal distributions", Europhysics Letters, 78 (2007), 58002. [PDF]Does scoring a goal in a football match improve the probability of scoring another one?  In this paper the authors augment a statistical model with a feedback term called "self-affirmation" that reflects the (de)motivation of […]