I'm using the 2008-09 English Premier League as a test case of the three-parameter Weibull distribution that is the basis of the Pythagorean formula. Below I present the exponent values that I obtained from the least-squares estimation, as well as a few plots that show how the resulting Weibull distribution fit to the score data. […]
Bittner E., Nussbaumer A., Janke W. and Weigel M., "Self-affirmation model for football goal distributions", Europhysics Letters, 78 (2007), 58002. [PDF]Does scoring a goal in a football match improve the probability of scoring another one? In this paper the authors augment a statistical model with a feedback term called "self-affirmation" that reflects the (de)motivation of […]
Moschini, GianCarlo, "Nash equilibrium in competitive games: live play in soccer", Economics Letters, 85: 365-371 (2005).This paper uses game theory to model a common soccer scenario: whether to beat a goalkeeper by shooting at the near post or the far post. The author examines goals scored in a Serie A season and determines that this […]
