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Soccer Pythagorean: Theory, Software DevelopmentWe make our Soccer Pythagorean method available to the world. A simple browser command is all you need to access Pythagorean expectations.
Why the baseball Pythagorean doesn’t work for soccer
Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryI see that a lot of people have been visiting this site because of Devin Pleuler’s article on the soccer Pythagorean expectation that we’ve developed. Welcome to Soccermetrics! We’re all about creating knowledge and insight from the data revolution that has overtaken soccer in the last few years.
Another way to look at the Soccer Pythagorean
Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryI had been engaged in an email exchange with a reader very recently about my soccer Pythagorean which required me to revisit the expression. I came to look at the Pythagorean in a slightly different way, but one that improved my own understanding of it. I’d like to share it and hopefully it will be [...]
Soccer Pythagorean paper now published in JQAS
Soccer Pythagorean: Theory, Soccermetrics Publications, Vanity AlertIt's taken a very long time to get to this point, but my paper on the Soccer Pythagorean has been published in the recent edition of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. You can find a link to the paper here. Thanks to all who helped bring this about, and it is my hope [...]
Pythagorean paper to appear in JQAS
Soccer Pythagorean: Theory, Soccermetrics Publications, Vanity AlertLast night (actually early this morning) on my Twitter feed I intimated that there would be some big news forthcoming on this site. Now that I've gotten some sleep, I can reveal it to you. I learned last night that my paper on the soccer Pythagorean estimation will appear in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis [...]
Soccer Pythagorean: Lessons Learned
Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryHopefully, this will be the last post I write on the Soccer Pythagorean. Oh, I will continue to post tables for selected European leagues and MLS throughout the season, but development of the estimation formula has reached a level of maturity where I can now direct my focus to other things.
Goalscoring variances and Pythagorean residuals
Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryThere is one remaining study to complete with respect to the Pythagorean estimation before I wrap a bow around it and concentrate on something else. Last weekend in San Francisco I touched briefly on the effect of offensive/defensive goal variances on the difference between the Pythagorean estimate and the actual point total — the Pythagorean [...]
Are league tables an expression of team quality?
League Competitions, Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryMost people would answer "yes" to the above question, but as this article in the British Plus magazine indicates, the answer is not as apparent as it seems. In fact, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty as far as the true underlying quality of the team is concerned. The article is a couple of [...]
Pythagorean exponents in domestic leagues
Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryMy work on the soccer Pythagorean is almost done, but there were a couple of trade studies that I wanted to complete before I tied a bow around everything. There were two questions that I wanted to address: Is there a "universal" Pythagorean league exponent, one that applies over all leagues? How do league Pythagorean [...]
What I’m up to this week
Conferences and Symposia, Database Development, Hybrid Competitions, Match Data Collection, Paper Discussions, Soccer Pythagorean: TheoryThis is a busy week for everyone doing analytics work. People are rushing to complete their final analyses of the 32 finalists, make tournament predictions, and whatever software tools they need to carry out their tasks. Here is what I'm working on this week: Debugging the data entry forms that implement the Football Match Result [...]