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Superliga Argentina at one-third distance: Racing to the top

Argentina’s Superliga competition enters the October international break at one-third distance, with a fair number of matches pending due to weather or lack of groundskeeping.  Here is the league table after the most recent matchday:For the first time in almost two years, there is a new leader of the top flight in Argentina. Boca Juniors […]

Superliga 2017/18 Review: Breaking down expected and actual results

Throughout Argentina’s Superliga season I’ve presented two league tables side-by-side — one based on the actual league results, and an alternative table based on the expected goal scorelines. Here’s the final table:(I color coded the outcome zones for the teams; yellow is for the league champion, blue goes to group stage of Copa Libertadores 2019, […]

How do Leicester City compare to previous English football champions?

Leicester City are the new champions of England by merit of their own high performance and the surprisingly less than expected performance of the usual contenders for the Premier League title.  Over the last few months, as Leicester’s title run began to be taken more seriously, there has been some discussion in the press about […]

Assessing the Projections: 2015 Major League Soccer regular season

The 2015 Major League Soccer regular season concluded last Sunday.  It’s time to engage in that exercise in humility in which I look back at projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what was projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final […]

Projecting the 2015-16 English Premier League

Following on from my most recent post, I present league projections for the 2015-16 English Premier League.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order.  These league projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical output in previous seasons and […]