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Soccermetrics + 1 year

Today is the one-year anniversary of Soccermetrics.  It's been a place where I could let my geeky side hang out and explore some interesting questions in the soccer world.  I'm always flattered to get readers, but I'm especially pleased to find out about the types of readers this site has attracted over the past year […]

Book Review: Soccernomics

Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, Soccernomics: Why England Loses, Why Germany and Brazil Win, and Why the U.S., Japan, Australia, Turkey — and Even Iraq — Are Destined to Become the Kings of the World's Most Popular Sport, Nation Books, 2009. [Amazon link]There has been a lot of interest in sports from "the geeks" over […]

Sunil Gulati to appear at MIT Sports Analytics conference

The agenda for MIT's Sports Analytics conference continues to be filled out.  And there will be some additional figures from the soccer world appearing — USSF president Sunil Gulati will appear on a panel discussing international trade in sport from American and European perspectives.For those of you who would like to submit a draft publication […]

Goal scoring probability over the course of a football match

M. J. Dixon and M. E. Robinson, "A birth process model for association football matches", The Statistician, 47(3): 523-538, 1998.How does the probability of the final score change with the relative strength of the two teams, home advantage, time elapsed, and the current score?  This publication describes what's called a "birth process" model and it […]

What I’m learning from the Soccer Pythagorean

I've had an opportunity to apply the soccer Pythagorean to various leagues and competitions, and I'm noticing some characteristics of the formula.First of all, the Pythagorean exponent does vary significantly from league to league, and perhaps from season to season in a league, but I haven't checked that out yet.  The exponent does stay between […]