Last year I wrote about the performance of previous MLS SuperDraft classes, including a way-too-early look at the performance of the 2017 draft class. Now that another year has passed since they entered the league, let’s revisit that class again. I’ve written about the evolution of draft pick value in Major League Soccer before and […]
Last year I created a draft value card for the 2018 MLS SuperDraft that purported to give a rough estimate of the relative value of each draft slot. With the SuperDraft approaching on Friday, it’s time to update that card, so here it is: Relative values of draft position in the 2019 MLS SuperDraft. With […]
Some, maybe most or even all, MLS teams use some sort of cheat sheet to help them make decisions on possible deals during MLS SuperDraft day. One of those cheat sheets is the draft value card that provides a rough estimate of the relative value of a draft pick.As you know, I’ve written several articles […]
This week is the week of the MLS SuperDraft in Philadelphia, and I am on my way there to attend an analytics symposium sponsored by Opta. One of the talks at the symposium will be a presentation by Kevin Minkus on the use of data to make draft selections. Last year I wrote extensively on […]
In my previous post, I set up the math that explained the MLS draft pick valuation models. In this post I will address the second part of the post title — what decisions can be informed and what insights can be gained from the model results. Relative draft value has changed a lot since 1996Major […]
At this time last year I was reviewing a paper by Tim Swartz and his students on MLS draft pick valuation models. Much has happened since then, such a couple of presentations in Vancouver and Atlanta on my own research on draft valuations. With the MLS SuperDraft quickly approaching I’d like to summarize my work and […]
This afternoon I participated in the third Mathematics and Sports session at the 2017 Joint Mathematics Meeting. My talk was titled “A Bayesian analysis of draft pick value in Major League Soccer”, which is a follow-on to what I presented at CASSIS in September but within a Bayesian framework. I’m way too critical of my […]
I’ve just completed my talk at CASSIS, and I’m happy to see that the presentation has generated interest among the audience. I enjoyed giving it, and I enjoyed all of the other oral and poster presentations there. My sincere thanks to Tim Swartz and Luke Bornn for organizing this event, and I hope they do […]
In my previous post, I presented a series of survivor curves that expressed the probability of a MLS draftee’s tenure reaching a certain number of league appearances. In most of survivor analysis, it’s common to see a survivor curve starting from 1.0 and descending from there, but in these MLS graphs that is not the […]
Major League Soccer has employed a series of drafts that distributed players who have signed with the league among its member clubs. There are drafts for college players (mostly), for players who have left the league and come back, and for in-league players left unprotected for an expansion draft. In this post, I focus on […]
