Tag Archives: MLS SuperDraft

# What’s a MLS draft pick worth, and what can be done with it? Part 2

In my previous post, I set up the math that explained the MLS draft pick valuation models.  In this post I will address the second part of the post title — what decisions can be informed and what insights can be gained from the model results. Relative draft value has changed a lot since 1996Major […]

# What’s a MLS draft pick worth, and what can be done with it?

At this time last year I was reviewing a paper by Tim Swartz and his students on MLS draft pick valuation models.  Much has happened since then, such a couple of presentations in Vancouver and Atlanta on my own research on draft valuations.  With the MLS SuperDraft quickly approaching I’d like to summarize my work and […]

# Slide deck of JMM 2017 talk now online

This afternoon I participated in the third Mathematics and Sports session at the 2017 Joint Mathematics Meeting. My talk was titled “A Bayesian analysis of draft pick value in Major League Soccer”, which is a follow-on to what I presented at CASSIS in September but within a Bayesian framework.  I’m way too critical of my […]

# Precision Guesswork: CASSIS 2016 slide deck now online

I’ve just completed my talk at CASSIS, and I’m happy to see that the presentation has generated interest among the audience.  I enjoyed giving it, and I enjoyed all of the other oral and poster presentations there.  My sincere thanks to Tim Swartz and Luke Bornn for organizing this event, and I hope they do […]

# The idea of draft mortality

In my previous post, I presented a series of survivor curves that expressed the probability of a MLS draftee’s tenure reaching a certain number of league appearances.  In most of survivor analysis, it’s common to see a survivor curve starting from 1.0 and descending from there, but in these MLS graphs that is not the […]

# What is the expected tenure of drafted MLS players?

Major League Soccer has employed a series of drafts that distributed players who have signed with the league among its member clubs.  There are drafts for college players (mostly), for players who have left the league and come back, and for in-league players left unprotected for an expansion draft.  In this post, I focus on […]

# What is a MLS draft position worth?

Tim Swartz, Adriano Arce, and Mohan Parameswaran, “Assessing Value of the Draft Positions in Major League Soccer’s SuperDraft”, The Sport Journal, 16(9): 2013. [PDF]In this paper, the authors create performance metrics based on minutes played and salary level of drafted Major League Soccer players in order to estimate the relative value of the SuperDraft positions. […]