Continuing with the discussion on adjusted plus/minus, below is a presentation that Wayne Winston made at the New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports last September on player and lineup analysis in the NBA. Wayne Winston is a professor at Indiana University's business school and the developer of the original adjusted plus/minus system (the Dallas […]
And here are the Pythagorean projections for the 2009-2010 Turkish Super League. League Pythagorean exponent is 1.70, same as with English and French leagues. Club GP GF GA Actual Pts Predicted Pts +/- Point Differential Fenerbahce 17 31 17 37 32 +5 Galatasaray 17 36 21 36 32 +4 Bursaspor 17 34 17 35 […]
A few days ago I presented Pythagorean projections for this year's English Premiership, based on the formula that I developed. I didn't like the fact that the projection overestimated league points, but felt that perhaps the estimated league position might be useful.Over the weekend, I took a much closer look at the derivation of the […]
Following up on my previous posts on Pythagoreans for the English and Turkish leagues, after the jump is a similar table for this season's Ligue 1 in France. (more…)
Yesterday, I published a table of team performance relative to statistical expectations in the English Premier League using my Soccer Pythagorean formula. Today I present a similar table for this season's Turkish Super League. The results are based on mid-season form and displayed in the same manner as before — goals scored and goals allowed, […]
Two weeks ago I said that I would post the document containing the derivation of the Soccer Pythagorean formula, but I was trying to complete a modification before uploading the paper on the site. It had to do with the fact that the predicted percentages of wins and draws exceeded 1 in some cases, which […]
I've had an opportunity to apply the soccer Pythagorean to various leagues and competitions, and I'm noticing some characteristics of the formula.First of all, the Pythagorean exponent does vary significantly from league to league, and perhaps from season to season in a league, but I haven't checked that out yet. The exponent does stay between […]
I've reached the final step in my effort to test my extended Pythagorean formula, using the 2008-09 English Premier League as a test case. There was a last-minute snag in my plans, however. I was looking over my equations one more time, and I decided to re-derive everything from the beginning, which is a good […]
A couple of nights ago I presented goal distributions for all twenty teams in the 2008-09 English Premier League season, in an attempt to calculate the exponent that would be used for my expansion of the Pythagorean. I realized after my calculation that I needed to consider the sum of the squares of both the […]
L. Szczepanski, "Measuring the effectiveness of strategies and quantifying players' performance in football", International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 8(2): 55-66, 2008. [Link]This paper describes a procedure that estimates the probability of scoring and conceding goals in a match from open or set play in a given sector of the field, by a player […]
