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Introducing pairwise Pythagorean expectations

Jay Heumann, “An improvement to the baseball statistic ‘Pythagorean Wins’”, Journal of Sports Analytics, 2(1): 49-59, 2016. [PDF]Abstract: This paper introduces a new version to the commonly used “Pythagorean wins” statistic, which improves on the traditional method by means of mathematical adjustment.  The new statistic is called the “pairwise” Pythagorean wins, and it is demonstrated, […]

How do Leicester City compare to previous English football champions?

Leicester City are the new champions of England by merit of their own high performance and the surprisingly less than expected performance of the usual contenders for the Premier League title.  Over the last few months, as Leicester’s title run began to be taken more seriously, there has been some discussion in the press about […]

Assessing the Projections: 2015 Major League Soccer regular season

The 2015 Major League Soccer regular season concluded last Sunday.  It’s time to engage in that exercise in humility in which I look back at projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what was projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final […]

Assessing the Projections: 2014 Major League Soccer regular season

The 2014 Major League Soccer regular season concluded a week and a half ago.  It’s time to look back at the projections made at the start of the season and assess them.Here is what we projected at the beginning of the season – first by conference:And then the single table:The final league table finished like this […]

Want 90 minutes of action? Play 120: Effective time for 2014 FIFA World Cup matches decided in extra time

In an earlier post I presented the estimated effective playing time in this summer’s World Cup matches over 90 minutes.  (They are estimates because the raw data used to calculate effective time do not track the moments when the ball leaves the field of play.)  Eight matches were decided in extra time, so for completeness […]

Is there a relationship between “mean-time-between” metrics and effective time?

Since I started to apply mean time between fouls and mean time between stoppages to World Cup data, I was curious to find out if there was any correlation between these “mean-time-between” metrics and the effective match time.  I’ll examine the correlation issues in this post.For reference, here is my post on MTBF for the […]

Introducing mean time between fouls and stoppages

I was looking through this blog at the number of posts that I’ve written about referee performance, and it turns out that there are, as of this date, five posts under that category.  Three of the articles are reviews of research publications, so I’ve actually written very little about the subject.  That’s about to change […]