[Originally written 31 October. Bumped to the top with updates.]A few nights ago I posted a link to the MIT Sports Analytics Conference to be held in March and later included a link to a call for papers to the event. I am thinking very seriously about submitting a paper to that conference. It will […]
I've had an opportunity to apply the soccer Pythagorean to various leagues and competitions, and I'm noticing some characteristics of the formula.First of all, the Pythagorean exponent does vary significantly from league to league, and perhaps from season to season in a league, but I haven't checked that out yet. The exponent does stay between […]
I've reached the final step in my effort to test my extended Pythagorean formula, using the 2008-09 English Premier League as a test case. There was a last-minute snag in my plans, however. I was looking over my equations one more time, and I decided to re-derive everything from the beginning, which is a good […]
A couple of nights ago I presented goal distributions for all twenty teams in the 2008-09 English Premier League season, in an attempt to calculate the exponent that would be used for my expansion of the Pythagorean. I realized after my calculation that I needed to consider the sum of the squares of both the […]
I'm using the 2008-09 English Premier League as a test case of the three-parameter Weibull distribution that is the basis of the Pythagorean formula. Below I present the exponent values that I obtained from the least-squares estimation, as well as a few plots that show how the resulting Weibull distribution fit to the score data. […]
As I said in my last post on my extended Pythagorean formula for soccer, I was in the process of compiling score data for the 2008-09 English Premier League season in order to test this formulation. The first step was to fit the data to a Weibull probability distribution in order to estimate the alpha […]
I completed my Soccer Pythagorean document a couple of days ago, but for some reason I had the hardest time developing a PDF file (I used LyX). I figured it out tonight and I'm linking it to the site now. I greatly appreciate your comments.Download PythagDerivationMORE (23 October, 10:50pm): I'm compiling some score data from […]
** BUMPED to the top with updates added **I want to give an update on my efforts to derive a Pythagorean (or Pythagorean-like) formula for use in soccer. As I said in other posts, the most challenging part is coming up with the term that captures the probability of a drawn result. This is rather […]
A few days ago, I wrote about an email discussion I was having on soccer Pythagoreans. (Here's some more information on Pythagoreans in general in case you don't know what they are.) The development of soccer Pythagoreans is an interesting problem, and an open problem in my opinion because the underlying premises of the Pythagorean […]
The other night I found myself included on a message thread where a guy (this one) is attempting to develop a soccer Pythagorean formula that would allow him to predict the number of points won over a league season based on the number of goals scored and allowed by a team over a season. From […]
