Introducing mean time between fouls and stoppages

I was looking through this blog at the number of posts that I’ve written about referee performance, and it turns out that there are, as of this date, five posts under that category.  Three of the articles are reviews of research publications, so I’ve actually written very little about the subject.  That’s about to change […]

Which goals scored/allowed statistics yield Pythagorean points?

When I was evaluating last season’s league projections and creating this season’s with the Pythagorean expectation, I was reminded that I hadn’t really studied which pairs of goals scored and allowed result in a specific expected point total.  In a league competition, it’s possible to reach a point total in various ways, and the combination […]

A statistical summary of 2013-14 league projections

To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the […]