Tertulia Analítica Deportiva: Announcing the Soccermetrics Drinkup in Buenos Aires

UPDATE: Just found out that Sugar Bar is CLOSED on Mondays, so the meet will be on Tuesday.  Please note new date and time.  Apologies!!After 13 years, it’s good to be back in Buenos Aires.  I’ve been reconnecting with old friends, exploring what’s new and unchanged, enjoying more than a few choris, empanadas, and asados, […]

A Soccermetrics drinkup in Buenos Aires?

On Friday, I’ll be in Buenos Aires, Argentina, for ten days.  I’m going for personal reasons — a close friend is getting married — but football will definitely be on the agenda.  Unfortunately, thanks to AFA’s unpredictable scheduling practices, matches involving me and my friend’s respective clubs –Vélez Sarsfield and Argentinos Juniors — that were […]

Projecting the 2015-16 English Premier League

Following on from my most recent post, I present league projections for the 2015-16 English Premier League.A lot of people are visiting this site for the first time, so an explanation of these projections is in order.  These league projections are a combination of expected goal statistics based on statistical output in previous seasons and […]

How do we create models to predict or explain?

Shmueli, G., “To Explain or To Predict?”, Statistical Science, 25(3): 289-310, 2010. [PDF][Research Page]Summary: This publication examines the fundamental and practical differences between the use of statistical and other empirical methods for prediction and causal explanation.  The article’s thesis is that statistical modeling, from the early stages of study design and data collection, to choice of model […]

Sporting Efficiency and the English Premier League

Bill Gerrard, “Analysing Sporting Efficiency Using Standardised Win Cost: Evidence from the FA Premier League, 1995-2007”, International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching, 5(1): 13-35, 2010. [Citation]Summary: This study proposes the use of standardised win cost as a simple and transparent measure of sporting efficiency in professional team sports. Standardised win cost measures the ratio of […]