How do we create models to predict or explain?

Shmueli, G., “To Explain or To Predict?”, Statistical Science, 25(3): 289-310, 2010. [PDF][Research Page]Summary: This publication examines the fundamental and practical differences between the use of statistical and other empirical methods for prediction and causal explanation.  The article’s thesis is that statistical modeling, from the early stages of study design and data collection, to choice of model […]

Sporting Efficiency and the English Premier League

Bill Gerrard, “Analysing Sporting Efficiency Using Standardised Win Cost: Evidence from the FA Premier League, 1995-2007”, International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching, 5(1): 13-35, 2010. [Citation]Summary: This study proposes the use of standardised win cost as a simple and transparent measure of sporting efficiency in professional team sports. Standardised win cost measures the ratio of […]

Financial Fair Play and its effect on European football

Thomas Peeters and Stefan Szymanski, “Financial fair play in European football”, Economic Policy, 29(78): 343-390, 2014. [Citation|Working Paper]Summary: This paper analyzes the financial and sporting impact of the UEFA Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations in four major European football leagues.  The authors claim that the effect of the break-even constraint embedded in FFP is to strengthen the […]

MLS Front-Office Efficiency in the Designated Player era

Four years ago I wrote a post on inflation-adjusted front-office efficiencies in Major League Soccer.  Looking back at the post, I was moving in the right direction with the analysis, but I believe that it’s better to compare seasonal performances instead of averages.  In this post I present data for standardized front-office efficiency in the […]

Updating the 2014 MLS Front-Office Efficiencies

In the previous post I presented the latest version of the Front-Office Efficiency metric.  I use that updated metric to revise that infographic that I created for the 2014 Major League Soccer season.The figure looks similar to the previous Front-Office Efficiency infographic with some important differences.  Because the offset payroll and performance values have been […]