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The Soccermetrics blog started in January 2009 and provides insight into analytics and statistics.

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Which goals scored/allowed statistics yield Pythagorean points?

When I was evaluating last season’s league projections and creating this season’s with the Pythagorean expectation, I was reminded that I hadn’t really studied which pairs of goals scored and allowed result in a specific expected point total.  In a league competition, it’s possible to reach a point total in various ways, and the combination […]

A statistical summary of 2013-14 league projections

To complete the look back at the 2013-14 league projections, below is a table that compiles the performance of our goal estimates, and the expected point model to come from that.  The competitions are sorted by the number of teams in the competition, then the points RMSE.  Unless stated by a number next to the […]

Assessing the Projections: The rest of our 2013-14 leagues (Part 3)

This is the third and final part of our exercise in humility — evaluating and assessing our league projections from the 2013-14 European season.  At some point in the future I’ll post the projected league tables, but I wanted to write my assessments and besides the 2014-15 season has just started. (more…)