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Shmueli, G., “To Explain or To Predict?”, Statistical Science, 25(3): 289-310, 2010. [PDF][Research Page]Summary: This publication examines the fundamental and practical differences between the use of statistical and other empirical methods for prediction and causal explanation. The article’s thesis is that statistical modeling, from the early stages of study design and data collection, to choice of model […]
The preseason projections for the 2014-15 English Premier League generated a lot of interest, and an equal amount of criticism. It’s been a long nine months since the season started, and now that we’re at its end, it’s time to evaluate the league projections against the final reality.There are many people who are coming to […]
Another European season is drawing to a close, and it’s time to take a look back at preseason projections that were made. In contrast to the 30+ league projections last season, there were only two made this time: the Dutch Eredivisie and the English Premier League. The Eredivisie concluded last Sunday, so this post will […]
It’s been a very long time since I’ve written about Soccermetrics software projects, so in this post I’d like to write about the current status and the roadmap ahead.Soccermetrics has a number of open-source projects that you can find at our GitHub page. Some projects are definitions of tables and views that make up database […]
Bill Gerrard, “Analysing Sporting Efficiency Using Standardised Win Cost: Evidence from the FA Premier League, 1995-2007″, International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching, 5(1): 13-35, 2010. [Citation]Summary: This study proposes the use of standardised win cost as a simple and transparent measure of sporting efficiency in professional team sports. Standardised win cost measures the ratio of […]